I don’t want to fall into the pundit trap—and everyone seems to be a pundit this year— but I really do think the polls are wrong because of primary cell phone use. And they are getting worse.
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It has been reported before how the lack of cell phone polling doesn’t catch many young voters because polls rely almost entirely on land line phones. But I don’t think the very scale of this is realized by many of the pundits in Washington-land. It isn’t just the college kids who don’t have landline phones anymore but a lot of us, mostly city dwellers, but a growing number of people.
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I have been voting for 16 years, and I have a hard time thinking of myself as a kid. I have also never been called for a political poll. It's because I don’t have a land line phone.
Most of the people I know don’t actually seem to have a land line either. If they do, it is for emergency outgoing calls only. Or it’s for their security system. Or so they can connect to the internet. I have watched my 37 year old best friend pick up a ringing phone and slam it right back down simply because no one ever calls his land line (I don’t even have the number). This isn’t just a few college kids we are talking about her.
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Oh and most of us are voting the same way.
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Sure this might not effect the Electoral College, which is actually skewed very heavily towards rural areas and battleground states (a farmer in Ohio’s vote is worth a lot more than mine since my state always votes in one direction), but it probably will. And what happens McCain wins the Electoral College but Obama wins the popular vote not by a little bit, but by a wide majority?
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